Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.014533 0.016437 0.018499 0.020897 0.023609 0.026583 0.030093
2025-10-05 0.011868 0.014573 0.017749 0.021755 0.026679 0.032539 0.040052
2025-10-12 0.010287 0.013361 0.017176 0.022266 0.028886 0.037220 0.048532
2025-10-19 0.009203 0.012516 0.016819 0.022828 0.031018 0.041814 0.057173
2025-10-26 0.008133 0.011508 0.016070 0.022697 0.032100 0.045003 0.064125
2025-11-02 0.007320 0.010732 0.015509 0.022699 0.033279 0.048327 0.071459
2025-11-09 0.006530 0.009889 0.014745 0.022293 0.033771 0.050643 0.077460
2025-11-16 0.006045 0.009433 0.014479 0.022563 0.035240 0.054451 0.085953
2025-11-23 0.005516 0.008852 0.013960 0.022376 0.035958 0.057134 0.092887
2025-11-30 0.005219 0.008600 0.013916 0.022910 0.037826 0.061719 0.103195
2025-12-07 0.004699 0.007939 0.013158 0.022212 0.037616 0.062927 0.108020
2025-12-14 0.004310 0.007456 0.012646 0.021865 0.037936 0.064993 0.114414
2025-12-21 0.003890 0.006890 0.011957 0.021173 0.037636 0.066033 0.119208
2025-12-28 0.003771 0.006836 0.012136 0.022008 0.040072 0.071991 0.133261
2026-01-04 0.003610 0.006693 0.012143 0.022526 0.041973 0.077136 0.146257
2026-01-11 0.003469 0.006573 0.012180 0.023095 0.044002 0.082659 0.160413
2026-01-18 0.003243 0.006272 0.011858 0.022962 0.044691 0.085737 0.170133
2026-01-25 0.003055 0.006028 0.011620 0.022964 0.045632 0.089347 0.181178
2026-02-01 0.002832 0.005697 0.011189 0.022553 0.045717 0.091295 0.189035
2026-02-08 0.002708 0.005552 0.011108 0.022826 0.047190 0.096082 0.203087
2026-02-15 0.002542 0.005309 0.010813 0.022637 0.047696 0.098949 0.213349
2026-02-22 0.002466 0.005243 0.010868 0.023178 0.049761 0.105167 0.231272
2026-03-01 0.002271 0.004912 0.010354 0.022472 0.049115 0.105650 0.236734